A World Cup in turmoil: What are fans waiting for when the team is unlikely to make it to the round of 32?
As fans wait for the results of the World Cup, many are in a state of uncertainty, hoping for favorable results to prolong their journey.
World Cup trips with a fixed budget or duration are often easy to organize. Cost is cost. For anyone with a job, vacation time is vacation time. Fans fly in, fans fly out and the whole thing looks like a typical summer vacation (plus football, and no guarantee of family discord).
But what about those who turn the World Cup into an unplanned adventure? Fans who decide to follow their team to a glorious or bitter end, no matter the cost or risk of upsetting employers? And what if the difference between prolonging the party or flying home depends on a series of matches that they or their country are not involved in or cannot control? In the context of the 2026 finals, what if continuation in the tournament depends entirely on FIFA's third-team rankings?
Let's say, your country is Scotland. They played their last game on Wednesday — a crushing loss to Brazil — and the omens are not good. They are third in Group C, so come tomorrow night, Scotland could be eliminated. But if the impossible happens and the outcome goes their way, the frenzied Tartans can look forward to being in Mexico City to take on co-hosts Mexico next Tuesday. It's the difference between hours in economy class and a few more days of drinking.
"After the final whistle against Brazil, qualifying felt like a 50:50 chance, so extending the trip seemed the logical decision," said Stewart Mackinlay, one of ten Scotland fans still in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. "Five games later, every result went against us, and we're still waiting, hoping something will finally go in our favour.
"Hotel costs increased and the cost of a new flight home was on our minds, but we held on and waited. At this point, all we can do is hope for a miracle."
When FIFA created the 48-team format for 2026, they created a round of 32 in which eight of the 12 third-placed teams would participate. It is not uncommon for places in the knockout round to be allocated this way. At Italia 90, a good comparison, the top two teams from all six groups entered straight, followed by the four best third-placed teams. However, in the 32-team World Cup era, FIFA has kept things simple as two nations from each group advance to the round of 16. Goals and results can influence rankings at the last minute, but once the group is complete, the fate of the nations within it is clear.
The third alliance in this edition has never been seen in the tournament; a table where — before the ball gets rolling — 495 variations of the final table can occur. Consequently, the exact composition of ring 32 depends entirely on which variation occurs. Needless to say, this is very complicated. And until the final group matches are completed tomorrow (Algeria against Austria and Jordan against Argentina), the picture could still change.
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