World Cup 2026: Scotland's attacking numbers point to repeat failures

Coach Steve Clarke has affirmed that he is a "different" person after unsatisfactory performances at Euro 2024. He hopes the Scottish team's performance at the World Cup will be different. However, this team is at risk of being eliminated right from the group stage, like the last two participations - with a silence and no historic knockout matches. Having scored just one goal in three matches, poor attacking ability was again indicative of a failed attempt to progress beyond the group stage. BBC Scotland analyzed the figures and looked for deeper problems.

Scotland came to Euro 2024 hoping to create history but instead created unwanted records. In three matches, they have had just 17 shots, the fewest ever by any country since the Euro group stage was introduced in 1980. The attacking numbers at World Cup 2026 are also not encouraging, while Tartan Army fans are celebrating across Boston and Miami. The data will change as more countries play their final matches, but for now, no team has scored fewer goals than Scotland. They are on par with Curacao, a new team participating in the World Cup for the first time and are ranked 41 places below Scotland.

Scotland's expected goals ratio is only average but has reduced performance by 1.6. They are also tied with Curacao and Haiti for shots on target per match - only eight of the 48 nations in the tournament have a lower average. After John McGinn scored against Haiti on matchday one, Clarke's side went 200 minutes without a shot on target, until Scott McTominay scored a header in the 49th minute against Brazil.

It is difficult to envision a Scotland goal, especially when McTominay, the team's star, is struggling at this World Cup. In a successful qualifying campaign, culminating in one of the greatest Scotland matches of all time - a 4-2 win over Denmark - their path to goals often came from set moments or situations. Many have felt that this team has been the team of its moments for a long time, and the moments they created during the nation's most successful period in a generation. However, there has always been a feeling that unconvincing performances during qualifying would lead to these moments running out. This has been partly proven.

Much of the criticism for Scotland's weak performances at Euro 2024 stems from Clarke's unwillingness to abandon a five-man defensive formation. But this summer, that is no longer true. The Scottish coach used three different schemes in three different matches. A 4-4-2 formation that helped Scotland score eight goals in two pre-World Cup friendlies against Curacao and Bolivia was applied in the tense win over Haiti. Slight variations of the 4-2-3-1 were used in both the matches against Morocco and Brazil, with defender Kieran Tierney playing on the left against Morocco and a more attacking system, with Ben Gannon-Doak on the wing, against Brazil.

Beyond Morocco, the attacking presence of Scotland's players on paper in matches against Haiti and Brazil contributed to the self-proclaimed idea that Clarke had arrived in America with a new man and new ideas. However, there have been concerns about the match plans and how they will be implemented. Scotland had to hang on for much of their 1-0 win over Haiti and many feared that a one-goal win could harm their hopes of progressing. This looks set to be part of an early breakup that now seems inevitable. Clarke said the idea that his team should have beaten Haiti more easily was a "story of people who don't understand football". He also praised the team's resilience, but individual mistakes from his players caused them to lose to Morocco and Brazil, two countries in FIFA's top 10 in the world.

Scotland's defense failed to correctly execute the offside trap when Morocco's players opened the scoring in the second minute. And a hesitant Scott McKenna lost possession within seven minutes against Brazil. Those mistakes have sparked a debate about quality on the field and quality in the training area. Are these players not up to the mark or is it just that the instructions on and off the ball are not clear enough? This is a debate that will last well into the summer, with Scotland's chances of progressing to the knockout stages now rated at just around 5%. Qualifying for three of the last four tournaments is certainly impressive, but fans are still hungry for progress. While both of those may be true, the key to progress has yet to be found.