World Cup 2026: Can Scotland escape the group if they win?

After a 28-year absence from the World Cup finals, Scotland are back and will face Brazil, Morocco and Haiti in the United States. This is a difficult task for coach Steve Clarke and his team, but Scottish fans still have dreams of going far after positive performances in previous friendly matches. Scotland's chances are also boosted by the expanded format, where even finishing third in Group C could be enough to progress. The eight best third-placed teams from the group stage will join the group winners and runners-up in the first knockout round.

So, will a victory be enough to help Scotland pass the group stage? All will focus on the match against Haiti, a match that Scotland absolutely must win to have a realistic chance of progressing to the next round. Four points would probably be enough to get through to the next round, but three points? Maybe, but goal difference will be very important in this case. Looking back at recent World Cups and applying the same logic - but with three third-placed teams progressing in those circumstances - only 2010 needed four points.

2022: The four third-placed teams have three points. A goal difference of zero is needed. 2018: Six third-placed teams got three points. A -1 goal difference is needed. 2014: Five third-placed teams got three points. A -1 goal difference is required. 2010: Four points will be needed. 2006: Only one third-placed team earned more than three points. A goal difference of -2 is enough for three points. 2002: Four teams scored three points or less. A goal difference of zero is needed. 1998: Six third-placed teams had more than three points. A goal difference of -5 will be enough to advance to the next round.

Therefore, Scotland's chances of victory look best in their opening match against Haiti. The team is ranked 83rd in the world and qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1974 after beating Nicaragua last month. Coach Sabastien Migne has not been able to set foot in Haiti since taking office two years ago, due to the prolonged conflict forcing them to play home matches 500 miles away in Curacao - an island country near the coast of Venezuela.

Wolves midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is one of their players, alongside many others from Major League Soccer and European leagues. Morocco is seeded second in the group. Ranked eighth in the world, they reached the semi-finals at the last World Cup and possess talents such as Paris Saint-Germain's Achraf Hakimi and Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz. They are also champions of the Africa Cup of Nations after being declared winners of the 2025 tournament, following the Confederation of African Football's controversial decision to overturn the final result due to Senegal's withdrawal. Morocco won all eight qualifying matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding just twice.

Brazil's stars like Vinicius Junior and Gabriel need little introduction, nor does their coach Carlo Ancelotti. However, these five-time champions struggled in qualifying. They finished fifth in the 10-team group in South America, losing six times - including defeat to Bolivia, who were thrashed 4-0 by Scotland in a friendly last weekend.

So if Scotland can beat Haiti and then pick up at least a point or lose narrowly to the top two seeds, they will have a good chance of progressing to the last 32. Not to mention further complications, what we do know is that if Scotland progress to the next round, they will play a knockout match at a major tournament for the first time on May 29, 30 or June 1 (BST).

Let's look at the most likely scenario first. If Scotland top the group, they will face the runners-up in Group F (comprising the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia) in Houston on May 29 (6:00 p.m.). Second place will have a round of 32 match against the winner from the same group in Monterrey on May 30 (02:00). There are three other possibilities for finishing third. These include returning to Boston to face the Group E winner (first seed Germany) on May 29 (9:30 p.m.), or meeting the Group I winner (first seed France) in New York 24 hours later. The final option is a trip to Mexico City to meet the winner of Group A. Co-hosts Mexico are in this group, along with South Africa, South Korea and the Czech Republic.

With many variables needing to be resolved throughout the group stage, there will likely be a very short period of time for Scotland between discovering their knockout opponents and their next destination if they finish third. Former Scotland captain Scott Brown, said at the time of the draw: "We have to find a way to beat Haiti, it will be a very important match for us. Morocco, we will be the underrated team when looking at the world rankings, it is a difficult match. Brazil is a big match. Everyone wants to be in the Scotland match against Brazil. Seeing the yellow shirt, they have top quality players. As well as Morocco. We have to beat Haiti and try to get points in elsewhere. There is hope for us."
Former Scotland striker James McFadden, said at the time of the draw: "It's a tough group. You've got the famous game against Brazil. Then Morocco, people will rate them as a dark horse because they got to the semi-finals last time. And you don't want to say, because it's international football, but it's a winnable game against Haiti. That makes things a little easier. If you're third, that gives you a chance. We should go." to try to create a surprise, especially against Brazil and Morocco.